This year the numbers tell a quieter story. On 6 November, the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC) published its monthly figures, and the message from its general manager, Germán Bahamón, was short: “The cycle of lower coffee production persists.”

The numbers

Colombia produced 1.114 million 60 kg bags in October 2026, down 8% from 1.208 million in October 2025. Over the twelve months from November 2025 to October 2026, production reached 12.56 million bags, against 14.74 million in the same period a year earlier. That is a drop of 15%, or roughly 2.2 million bags.

From January to October, the country produced 10.05 million bags, 10% less than the 11.17 million of the same months in 2025. The FNC expects the full 2026 calendar year to land between 12.2 and 12.5 million bags. In 2025, Colombia harvested about 13.6 million.

Exports held up in October

One figure went the other way. Exports rose 6% in October, to 1.119 million bags, slightly more than the month’s harvest. Over twelve months, however, exports fell 11% to 11.85 million bags. A bag shipped in October was not necessarily picked in October. Mills, warehouses and exporters hold stock, so a strong month at the port can sit on top of a weaker month on the farm.

Why the crop is smaller

According to the FNC, persistent rains in recent months hit flowering and bean development. Regional reporting also points to higher coffee berry borer levels, above 8% at growers’ cooperatives, and a rise in lower quality coffee with cup defects. For specialty buyers, that matters as much as the volume itself: when the crop is smaller and defects rise, clean, well-sorted lots become harder to find.

What it means for your coffee

For roasters planning their 2027 Colombian coffees, three things follow. First, expect less room to wait: good lots from the current harvest are likely to be committed earlier than in a normal year. Second, quality control at origin matters more than usual, from cupping to sorting at the dry mill. Third, plan shipments with some margin, because a smaller crop leaves exporters less slack when something goes wrong.

We work from Pereira, in the middle of the coffee belt, close to the producers behind our lots. If you are planning your Colombian coffees for 2027, we are happy to talk it through.

Reported by Joram Bennekers
Founder & Trader, Origin Bridge | Pereira, Colombia